Welcome to John Bollinger's Capital Growth Letter Hotline for Monday the 6th of March 2017.
The character of trading in recent days has been what I would call sloppy, but all that has happened is that the upside gap generated by Trump's speech has been covered. I remain impressed by the strength of this market and expect, at worst, a correction. A first downside target might be 235 for the SPY, the middle Bollinger Band, but I am not even sure we will get that. Clearly politics is playing a major role, but even with the opposition in full attack mode the market is paying little attention. Advance and decline data remain strong, there is nothing worrisome from a Bollinger Band perspective, the high low data show no signs of weakness, and sector rotation remains normal. A correction? Certainly a possibility. Something worse. I just don't see any evidence for that call.
Large-cap growth continues to outperform. It is too early to ascertain if this is really new leadership, or just a bit of catch up. Certainly the interest in growth is a welcome idea as at these valuation levels growth is the only reason to invest.
There is one change to the ETF portfolios this week. Sell IGN and buy XLK, which is a switch from media tech to straight technology.
There are no changes to the Core portfolios this week.
I believe that all aspects of BollingerBands.com are working as intended, including the automated Ice Breaker reports. Ice Breaker has four open positions, two in SPY and two in QQQ, with an average gain north of 13%.
Be careful out there!
The Value Line Plan is in the market with a Friday sell stop of 512.57.
The Value Line Geometric Index stands at 519.05.
The current allocations are:
70% US stocks, 10% International, 10% Yield and 10% Cash.
The ETF Program portfolio holdings:
Style (21): IUSV, 8, IWF, 2, IWB, 4.
Country (21): EWO, 2, EWA, 6, EWT, 11.
Sector (27): XLK, 2, IXG, 1, SOXX, 9.
Details on our Allocations, Ice Breaker and our ETF portfolios can always be found on the Capital Growth Letter web site.
Until next time, I wish you well.
John Bollinger, CFA, CMT