Weekly Update

June 26, 2017

 

Welcome to the Bollinger Band Letter Hotline for Monday the 26th of June 2017.

 

Our outlook for the stock market remains positive. I cross checked the US stock market with world markets such as the Britain, FTSE, Germany, DAX and Japan, N225, and the story is virtually the same everywhere, high level consolidations. When these formations lead to declines we usually see internal deterioration before the decline sets in, but we really aren't seeing that yet. One concern I am looking at is NYSE new 52-week lows, which are running a bit higher than I would like, but are not at troublesome levels yet. Leadership remains mixed, suggesting a lot of rotation in the consolidation, which is what one would normally expect. We are in a Bollinger Band Squeeze, so I am looking for resolution soon.

 

There is an interesting story unfolding in the interest-rate world. Short-term rates continue to rise steadily while longer-term rates have pulled back and stalled. This would suggests that the market believes that monetary policy is non-inflationary. That seem counter-intuitive given the growth rates of money supply, but the message seems clear. Confirmation comes from that fact that nothing is happening in the precious metals arena.

 

There are no changes to the ETF portfolios this week.

 

There are no other changes for now.

 

Ice Breaker continues to hold a single position for each of the five monitored ETFs.

 

Be careful out there!

 

The Value Line Plan is in the market with a Friday sell stop of 511.98.

 

The Value Line Geometric Index stands at 520.77.

 

The current allocations are:

70% US stocks, 10% International, 10% Yield and 10% Cash.

 

The ETF Program portfolio holdings:

Style (21): IUSG, 2, IWF, 3, IWB, 4.

Country (21): EWO, 6, EWP, 9, EWN, 5.

Sector (27): XLK, 6, IGV, 4, SOXX, 10.

 

Details on our Allocations, Ice Breaker and our ETF portfolios can always be found online:

https://www.bollingerbands.com/bb-letter/

 

Until next time, I wish you well.

 

John Bollinger, CFA, CMT

 

Copyright 2017 by Bollinger Capital Management

 

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