Weekly Update

September 30, 2017

Welcome to the Bollinger Band Letter Hotline for Saturday the 30th of September 2017.

Smaller stocks have really played catch up, winning back about half of their relative decline in a short time while growth and value remain a push. Our FAANG Index continues to underperform the market as interest shifts back towards smaller stocks. This is a classic example of a stock-market rotation and a healthy indication for the market.

The stock market continues to run strong into the October danger zone, with the advance – decline line making new highs and few meaningful signs of trouble. Below is a chart that depicts the typical volatility we see late in the year, peaking in October. It is the average annual pattern of the VIX created from 26 years of data. Though we seem to have dodged the bullet so far this year, I don't think that we are out of the woods quite yet.

I'll be traveling to attend the International Federation of Technical Analysts annual meeting starting late next week.

There are no changes to the ETF portfolios this week.

With the Value Line Geometric at 539.31, the Value Line Plan is in the market with a Friday sell stop of 526.54.

The current allocations are:

50% US stocks, 10% International, 10% Yield and 30% Cash.

The ETF Program portfolio holdings:

Style (21): IUSG, 10, IWF, 7, IWB, 2.

Country (21): EWO, 2, EWI, 1, EWN, 3.

Sector (27): IXJ, 5, IGV, 12, PSJ, 1.

Ice Breaker reporting is now current.

Details on our Allocations, Ice Breaker and our ETF portfolios can be found here:

https://www.bollingerbands.com/bb-letter/

Until next time, I wish you well.

John Bollinger, CFA, CMT