Weekly Update

September 17, 2018

 

Welcome to the Bollinger Bands Letter Update for Monday September 17, 2018.

 

This update is being published on a Monday as I took a long weekend to clear my mind with a visit to the giant Sequoia trees in the Sierra mountains, magnificent!

 

This is a newsletter week. The September Bollinger Bands Letter will be posted Saturday the 22nd of September.

 

I now expect a short- to intermediate-term correction leading to a classic fall buying opportunity. Negative technical evidence is gradually accumulating with minor breadth and momentum divergences building up and weakness in other markets. I had thought that there was a chance that we could skip the usual fall volatility, but market data suggests that is no longer the high probability outcome. We suggested some sales last week and a reduction in the allocation for US stocks. Conservative accounts may wish to be even more defensive if the technical condition of the market deteriorates further. We are focusing more on what to commit to after the correction, than on defense against a more meaningful downside move.

 

Looking for more sales? I don't think that there is much urgency, but energy shares would be my first pick. More in the letter.

 

Be careful out there!

 

There were no changes to the ETF portfolios this week.

 

The Value Line Program remains in the market; with the Value Line Geometric Average at 585.62 the Friday sell stop stands at 577.81.

 

The ETF Program portfolio holdings:

Style (21): IJT, 2, IWF, 6, IVW, 5.

Country (21): EWQ, 7, EWL, 1, EWA, 11.

Sector (27): XLK, 9, PSJ, 2, XLY, 4.

 

Our allocations are 50% US stocks, 10% international, 10% yield and 30% cash.

 

Details on our Allocations, Ice Breaker positions and ETF portfolios along with our weekly Market Timing Chart Pack can be found here:

https://www.bollingerbands.com/bb-letter/

 

Until next time, I wish you well.

 

John Bollinger, CFA, CMT

 

Copyright 2018 by Bollinger Capital Management, Inc.

 

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