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CGL Notice:
11/20/09: November 2009 Capital Growth Letter posted

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Bollinger Bands Introduction:
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Bollinger Bands are a technical trading tool created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s. They arose from the need for adaptive trading bands and the observation that volatility was dynamic, not static as was widely believed at the time.

The purpose of Bollinger Bands is to provide a relative definition of high and low. By definition prices are high at the upper band and low at the lower band. This definition can aid in rigorous pattern recognition and is useful in comparing price action to the action of indicators to arrive at systematic trading decisions.

Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper band and lower band. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. The default parameters, 20 periods and two standard deviations, may be adjusted to suit your purposes.

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CAPITAL GROWTH LETTER Excerpt

November 2009
Commodities

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Quietly, while no one was looking, commodity prices have snuck out to a new high. The trend has been steadily higher since March with one meaningful pullback. We think that in the current phase, this is a leading indicator for the economy, one that ought to be paid attention to. If we are to rollover into the double dip recession so many are looking for -- we are not looking for a double dip -- we'd expect commodity prices to soften, and there is no sign of that.

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