October 29, 2017
Welcome to the Bollinger Band Letter Weekly Update for Sunday the 29th of October 2017.
Not much differential by stock size, but growth is picking up some interest relative to value, which seems like the impact of earnings season going well for the technology giants. Markets remain relatively calm and orderly. The VIX is at very low values, always a concern as low volatility begets high volatility. The NYSE advance-decline line, one of our primary market-timing tools, has been flat since the beginning of the month. Given that divergence, price at new highs but not the a-d line, one wonders if Friday's news-driven surge in the tech stocks—Amazon, Hewlett, Google and so forth—isn't what Wyckoff would have called an upthrust after distribution. Interest rates broke higher last week, which contributes to our unease. I am not at all convinced that we are in the clear; stocks are strong, but I can't help worrying a bit. This week ought to be an important one from an analytical perspective. Finally, I suspect that the recent weakness in the dollar is over.
There were no changes to the ETF portfolios this week. With the Value Line Geometric at 543.46, the Value Line Plan is in the market with a Friday sell stop of 533.13.
The current allocations are:
50% US stocks, 10% International, 10% Yield and 30% Cash.
The ETF Program portfolio holdings:
Style (21): IUSG, 3, IWF, 1, IWB, 4.
Country (21): EWO, 6, EWI, 11, EWN, 7.
Sector (27): IXJ, 5, IGV, 4, PSJ, 1.
Details on our Allocations, Ice Breaker and our ETF portfolios can be found here:
Until next time, I wish you well.
John Bollinger, CFA, CMT
Copyright 2017 by Bollinger Capital Management