March 9, 2019
Welcome to the Bollinger Band Letter Update for Saturday the 9th of March 2019.
We have experienced a very fast short-term correction in the US stock market that has been echoed in the international markets. I do not believe that it marks the end of the current bull run; rather it seems to be a garden variety correction of the sort that we typically see in up trends. It caused the Value Line Program to exit the market Friday. I am fairly certain that this will be a whipsaw as there is strong evidence that the correction may have ended Friday. I am in NYC for the TradersEXPO. It will be very interesting to gauge sentiment here. I expect to run into a lot of bears, which would confirm the up trend from a contrarian perspective. To be clear, I remain constructive on the market and am using this pullback to add to positions. There are no changes to the allocations and we remain nearly fully invested with a recommendation that investors and traders should be near or at there maximum comfortable exposure.
After NY I will be in Zurich for a few days before heading home, which will be an excellent opportunity to gauge euro stock sentiment at a near perfect time as I am considering adding some euro exposure.
There is one change to the ETF portfolios this week, sell IWO and buy IVW, which is a switch into large-cap growth.
The Value Line Program is out of the market, with the Value Line Geometric Average at 524.87, the Friday buy stop stands at 532.89.
The ETF Program portfolio holdings:
Style (21): IVW 3, IWR 2, IWP 1
International (21): EWH 1, EWL 2, EWZ 9
Sector (27): PBW 6, XLU 1, PSJ 3
Our allocations are 70% US stocks, 10% international, 10% yield and 10% cash.
Details on our Allocations, Ice Breaker positions and ETF portfolios along with your weekly Market Timing Chart Pack can always be found here:
Until next time, I wish you well.
John Bollinger, CFA, CMT
Copyright 2019 by Bollinger Capital Management, Inc.